Price Overview
| Material | Current Price Range | WoW | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| PTFE Resin (Suspension) | 31,800-54,000 CNY/ton | Flat | → Stable |
| PEEK Resin (Victrex 450G) | 260-290 CNY/kg | Flat | → Stable |
| Carbon Fiber T700 (12K) | 145-200 CNY/kg | -2%~0% | ↓ Weak |
| PI Film (Electronic Grade) | 160-180 CNY/kg | Flat | → Stable |
| Alumina (Al₂O₃≥98.5%) | 2,705-2,830 CNY/ton | +2.1% | ↑ Slight Up |
| Silicon Nitride Powder (Industrial) | 60-72 CNY/kg | Flat | → Stable |
Key Changes
- Alumina: +2.1% — Chalco raised Shandong quotation to 2,730 CNY/ton on June 4, up 58 CNY/ton WoW. Driven by tight bauxite supply and rising electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization.
- Carbon Fiber T700: Weak — Domestic capacity continues to expand (Jilin Chemical Fiber’s 400kt project advancing), while demand recovery in wind energy and sports remains sluggish. T700 (12K) at 145-200 CNY/kg, nearly halved from 2022 peak.
Impact Analysis
- Crude Oil: Brent surged to $94/bbl in early June before retreating to ~$83/bbl. US-Iran “fight-and-talk” dynamics driving wide swings. World Bank forecasts 2026 Brent average at $94/bbl (+36% YoY), supporting fluorochemical and specialty plastics cost floors.
- PTFE Cost Support: Fluorite/hydrofluoric acid costs elevated by high oil prices. PTFE quoted at 31,800 CNY/ton on June 14; dispersion-grade premium at 54,000 CNY/ton. Overall stable.
- Carbon Fiber Oversupply: New capacity additions far outpace demand recovery. Price downtrend since 2024 remains intact. De-stocking continues in the short term.
- PI Film Stable Demand: Supported by FPC and battery separator applications. Pricing holds steady.
Actionable Recommendations
- Lock Prices: Alumina — early uptrend phase, aluminum/ceramics firms should lock Q3 volumes on dips. PTFE — strong cost support under high oil, build positions gradually for essential needs.
- Wait and See: Carbon Fiber — capacity peak still driving prices down; defer non-urgent purchases to late Q3. PEEK — pricing stable, no hedging needed; buy as needed.
- Risk Alert: Watch China’s domestic fuel price adjustment window on June 18 (estimated -320 CNY/ton) for marginal impact on chemical cost structures.
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